The secessionist Parti Quebecois has won the most seats in Quebec's provincial election and will form the next government in the predominantly French-speaking Canadian province, according to media projections.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the party's leader, is set to become premier. It marks the first time the Parti Quebecois has held power since 2014 and represents a sharp recovery for the party, which won just three seats in the 2022 provincial election.

It was not immediately clear whether the party had secured the 64 seats needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. If it falls short, it will lead a minority government and require support from opposition lawmakers to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes.

The Quebec Liberal Party secured the second-most seats, while the Quebec Conservative Party also gained seats.

The result ends eight years in power for the Coalition Avenir Quebec, a centre-right Quebec nationalist party that does not support independence. The outgoing premier, Christine Frechette, conceded her own re-election race in Trois-Rivieres shortly before 22:00 local time.

"Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had," Frechette said in her concession speech. "I have Quebec tattooed on my heart." She added that she would work with Plamondon on the transition.

During the campaign, Plamondon promised to hold a third referendum on Quebec's independence from Canada during his first term, though he said he would wait until US President Donald Trump leaves office. Trump is due to leave office in roughly two years, meaning a referendum would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030 if Plamondon keeps his pledge.

Quebec held two previous referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995, both of which rejected secession. The 1995 vote was decided by a narrow margin. Support for independence currently stands at around 30 percent, low by historical standards.

Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the victory reflects Quebec's multiparty system, where support is divided among several parties, rather than a surge in secessionist sentiment.

"Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney," Beland said.

The result poses a new national-unity challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who may find himself managing dual unity pressures from different parts of the country, depending on the outcome of an upcoming independence-related vote in Alberta later this month.

Carney remains popular in Quebec, though support for him had recently dipped after the United States imposed new tariffs on Canada in August following a breakdown in trade talks. Quebec is among the provinces hardest hit by the latest US tariffs, with experts at Oxford Economics projecting a C$2 billion blow for the province.

Beyond the independence question, Plamondon has made clear he is prepared to confront the federal government on issues of provincial interest. He vowed during the campaign to fight any increases in immigration mandated by the Carney government.

He also pledged to "abolish the monarchy in Quebec" and redirect money spent on royal institutions toward social services. "We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes," he told reporters in late September.

Among the specific measures proposed, Plamondon suggested defunding Quebec's lieutenant-governor's office, which represents King Charles III in the province, and redirecting that funding to tackle homelessness. Such a move is expected to face significant legal challenges, given the monarchy's central role in Canada's constitution. One of the key functions of the lieutenant-governor is to grant royal assent to new legislation, meaning its abolition could place future Quebec laws in doubt. Plamondon has said he is prepared for a legal battle with the federal government on the matter.

Carney congratulated Plamondon on his victory late Monday and pledged cooperation. "Building a stronger Quebec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," Carney wrote on social media. "I look forward to working with you to support Quebec's businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs, work to end homelessness, and get more homes built across Quebec."