Finance officials from around the world are gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, held outside Washington for the first time in three years.
The US-Israel war on Iran, now in its eighth month, is expected to dominate the agenda, alongside the biggest energy supply shock on record, rising interest rates, and mounting public debt — all of which pose serious risks to already-sluggish global economic growth.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said 18,000 people had registered to attend the meetings, 4,000 more than at the last off-site gathering, held in Morocco in October 2023.
A notable absence will be US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who dispatched two senior officials in his place while attending to what a US official described as "domestic engagements." Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh will attend and is scheduled to participate in a public event with Georgieva on October 16.
Several other finance ministers are also staying home due to domestic budget and election duties, though Georgieva said most central bankers would be present.
Bessent's decision to skip the meetings — including a gathering of the Group of 20 major economies, which the US leads this year — may frustrate counterparts amid rising tensions over the Iran war, Ukraine's ongoing conflict with Russia, and the US move to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court.
On the energy front, the Group of Seven countries have agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves, under pressure from US President Donald Trump, who is seeking lower fuel prices ahead of November elections that could see his Republican Party lose control of Congress.
Trump also announced on Friday a deal with Russia that would supply additional diesel to global markets and include a temporary waiver of US sanctions designed to limit Moscow's revenues from its war on Ukraine. The announcement drew swift criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
More than one billion barrels of oil have been released — mainly from onshore commercial inventories — since the start of the war on February 28. However, industry executives warn that accessible storage is running low, making markets more fragile and adding upward pressure on prices.
The IMF has signalled little change to its forecast of three percent global growth in 2026 and may edge its projection for the following year slightly higher. Some countries, however, face downgrades — among them Ukraine, now in its fifth year of war, and Gulf states hit by Iranian strikes and sharply reduced energy exports.
IMF research published on Tuesday found that sharp spikes in food and energy prices are an increasingly common source of crises, driving inflation expectations higher for longer, worsening poverty, and threatening economic stability.
Public debt is emerging as another major concern. The IMF says global public debt is at its highest level since World War II and is on course to exceed 100 percent of gross domestic product before 2030. Advanced economies, led by the United States, carry the highest debt-to-GDP ratios.
Emerging markets and low-income countries are considered particularly vulnerable, facing a combination of capital outflows driven by higher US interest rates, weather extremes linked to the El Nino climate phenomenon, and limited access to artificial intelligence technologies that have helped cushion supply shocks in wealthier nations.
Developing countries collectively face $400 billion in debt payments to external creditors in 2026. Interest payments already exceed 10 percent of government revenue on average, and much of that debt will need to be renegotiated at higher rates — adding further strain to already stretched public finances.
