Growing fears of a return to civil war have emerged in Ethiopia after fighters from Tigray launched an offensive into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara, while a new rebel alliance announced its formation with the stated aim of overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The previous conflict, fought between 2020 and 2022 between the Ethiopian federal army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), killed an estimated 600,000 people. Both sides are now accusing the other of triggering a return to open conflict.
On Sunday, seven armed groups from across the country, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, aimed at deposing the government in Addis Ababa.
On Wednesday, the TPLF seized control of three airports from federal police. State-owned Ethiopian Airlines said it had suspended flights to the region "due to the current situation."
TPLF forces also launched attacks into Afar and Amhara. A humanitarian source in Afar told sources that heavy artillery attacks were carried out by the group on Thursday as fighters attempted to take control of the town of Yallo, near the Tigrayan border.
TPLF Vice-President Amanuel Assefa confirmed the scale of the fighting. "We are in the situation of full-blown war now," he said. He confirmed that Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in both Afar and Amhara.
According to a foreign security source based in Ethiopia, the TPLF took control of Abala, on the Tigray-Afar border, on Wednesday. A TPLF source said fighters had also seized several other towns in Afar. The same foreign security source reported fighting around the Amhara town of Weldiya, described as one of the few routes leading to the capital, Addis Ababa.
The Ethiopian federal army said it had killed 272 TPLF soldiers during attacks across multiple parts of the North Wollo Zone in Amhara. The figure has not been independently verified. No casualty figures were provided for federal army personnel or civilians.
Analysts say the TPLF has the support of Eritrea, Ethiopia's neighbour and historic adversary, which reportedly fears that landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea. When asked about Eritrean involvement, Assefa said: "We have no information about Eritrea's plan." Asked whether Tigrayan forces would request Eritrean intervention, he replied: "Not yet."
The current fighting reflects a significant shift in alliances compared to the previous civil war, during which Eritrea and Fano, an insurgent group now part of the new rebel alliance, both fought alongside the government against the TPLF.
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde condemned "the forces of destruction and mayhem" and what he described as "interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements." He said Ethiopia had exercised "immense restraint" and had made progress with its neighbours.
Prime Minister Abiy's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, said members of the alliance had been collaborating for some time with financial backing from Eritrea. Eritrea has repeatedly denied similar accusations.
The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined by the rise of Abiy Ahmed, a development that eventually contributed to the outbreak of civil war.
The renewed fighting represents the most serious challenge yet to the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the previous civil war and maintained an uneasy calm until late last year, when clashes resumed.
The escalation raises fears of a broader regional conflict that could draw in armed groups from across the region and further destabilise an area already strained by war in neighbouring Sudan and ongoing tensions along the Red Sea.
On Wednesday, African Union Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged "utmost restraint" from all warring parties and called for the resumption of direct talks. An EU spokesperson called for "immediate de-escalation" and a recommitment to the Pretoria agreement.
