Americans head to the polls on 3 November to decide the composition of Congress, with control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate up for grabs. The outcome could shape the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term.
Both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans. Democrats are hoping to flip one or both, buoyed by Trump's declining approval ratings and historical trends that tend to punish the president's party in midterm elections.
Trump's approval rating stood at just over 50% at the start of his second term, according to polling resource Silver Bulletin, but fell quickly into the low 40s. It dropped below 40% shortly after he launched air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February, and currently sits at around 37%.
By comparison, Trump's approval rating at the same point in his first term was 43%. Joe Biden's stood at 40% at the equivalent stage of his presidency. In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House in the midterms but retained the Senate.
The Republican majority in the House is razor-thin. The party holds exactly 218 seats — the minimum required for control — plus one independent who votes with them. All 435 House seats are up for election in November, as members serve two-year terms.
However, most districts are not considered competitive. The Cook Political Report identifies just 21 districts as toss-ups. Of those, 15 are currently held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If Democrats win five of those toss-up seats on top of 28 districts already classed as likely or leaning Democratic, they will take control of the House.
Historically, the president's party loses an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, based on data going back to 1934. Across 23 such elections, the president's party has made gains in only three.
The Republican position in the Senate is somewhat stronger. The party holds 53 of 100 seats, while Democrats hold 45, with two independents who caucus with them. Senators serve six-year terms, with roughly a third of seats up for election every two years.
Thirty-five Senate seats are on the ballot in November. The Cook Political Report classifies seven of them as toss-ups, six currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats. To reach a majority of 51, Democrats would need to win four of those toss-up seats plus four others classed as likely or leaning Democratic.
The path is difficult. Democrats must first defend their seat in Michigan, where polls indicate a tighter-than-expected race between left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and Trump ally.
Democrats would also need to pick up seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. Polls suggest they have a chance even in Texas, where former teacher James Talarico is running against state attorney general Ken Paxton, a close Trump ally. If Talarico wins, he would be the first Democrat to claim a Texas Senate seat since 1988.
On the issues, Trump pledged during his 2024 campaign to end inflation and make America more affordable. The cost of living remains the central concern for voters heading into the midterms.
