Election Day has arrived, with voting now officially under way across the United States. More than 54 million people have already cast ballots — nearly half the total number of votes recorded in the last midterm election.
Democrats hold a double-digit advantage in early voting data. However, analysts note that a critical factor will be Republican turnout on Election Day itself, as GOP voters have historically favored in-person voting.
Democrats are favored to win the House of Representatives. They need to flip only three seats to take control, and the political landscape has shifted considerably in their favor, even over the past month.
Republicans attempted to protect their position through mid-decade redistricting, a rare move, but it is not expected to be sufficient to retain the chamber.
The Senate race remains far less certain. Democrats need to flip four seats to gain control — an outcome considered unlikely at the start of this election cycle. Strong Democratic candidates and a difficult national political environment for Republicans have since made it a genuine possibility.
Democrats are considered favorites to flip one Senate seat — North Carolina. Beyond that, the remaining competitive races are either toss-ups or lean slightly toward Republicans. The contests are largely taking place on Republican-held territory. Aside from Maine, five toss-up seats currently held by Republicans are located in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Trump has campaigned heavily in red states ahead of Election Day in an effort to mobilize his base. Republicans have identified Michigan as their top Senate target. A win there would significantly alter the Democrats' path to a majority.
High Republican turnout could limit Democratic gains to a single Senate seat. Low Republican turnout, by contrast, could result in Democrats picking up as many as six or seven seats and taking control of the chamber.
Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. ET from Kentucky and Indiana. Many races, however, are expected to be close, and final results in several states may not be known on election night. Officials have cautioned that counting could take days or even weeks in some cases.
