Swedes headed to the polls on Sunday in one of the country's closest general elections in recent memory, with the outcome set to determine whether a far-right party enters government for the first time or whether the country shifts back toward the centre-left.
Opinion polls show the centre-left opposition alliance holding a narrow lead, with Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson the favourite to return as prime minister after four years in opposition. However, her bloc's lead has narrowed considerably in the final days of campaigning.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's four-party right-wing alliance has been closing the gap. The bloc includes the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), whose leader is Jimmie Åkesson.
In 2022, Kristersson broke a longstanding political taboo by striking a deal with the SD to allow his minority coalition to govern. That arrangement gave the SD significant influence over policy, particularly on crime and immigration. Kristersson has now gone further, promising the SD ministerial posts if his bloc is returned to power.
The SD's manifesto includes pledges to introduce legislation targeting what it describes as "anti-Swedish sentiment," revoke permanent resident permits, and further reduce immigration. One of the party's campaign slogans is a promise to "make Sweden Sweden again."
Legal and civil rights experts have warned that an SD entry into government could further damage Sweden's international standing on human rights, which they say has already deteriorated under the current administration.
"What we have seen in the past four years is huge changes when it comes to policies on crime and immigration," said John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights Defenders.
"That is also the concern moving forward into the next mandate period: that this government will continue with a clear aim to further decrease the number of people coming to Sweden, the number of people who can get protection, and also that as many people as possible with migrant backgrounds leave Sweden -- either by force or voluntarily," Stauffer said.
Recent policy changes under the current government have included the deportation of teenagers, lowering the age of criminal responsibility, and placing 14-year-olds in adult prisons.
Stauffer noted that despite these changes, many voters and politicians continued to view Sweden as a champion of human rights. He warned that an SD-led government would shift that perception further.
"It's a fair guess that the negative trend will continue with SD in government, the view from abroad of Sweden will continue to deteriorate, less and less will [Sweden] be seen as a champion of human rights, but as any other country maybe. For some time Sweden has been seen as the exception," he said.
In an effort to win back voters, Andersson's Social Democrats have also moved to the right on crime, immigration, and integration. Stauffer cautioned that a centre-left victory would not necessarily reverse current hardline policies.
"With a Social Democrats-led government, many of the things we see as problematic are not going to be rolled back. But maybe negative development will not continue in the same way," he said.
The election comes days after Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany party seized first place in a state election, and as polls in France show Marine Le Pen leading ahead of next year's presidential vote.
With polls extremely tight and record early voting expected, the performance of smaller parties could prove decisive. The Liberals, a minor party within the governing coalition whose leader, Simona Mohamsson, has drawn controversy for her close ties to Åkesson, could be critical to the right's ability to form a majority.
On the left, turnout for the Centre party could also prove significant. The Left party has made some headway in recent polls and is gaining ground on the Moderates in Stockholm municipality, raising hopes within the party of a late surge.
