Polls have opened in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt in an election that could see the far-right Alternative for Germany party become the first far-right party to take power at a state level since World War II.
About 1.7 million people are eligible to vote. Polling stations opened at 8am local time and are due to close at 6pm, when exit polls and initial results are expected.
Pre-election surveys place the AfD at between 40 and 41 percent support, well ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union at around 23 percent. The number of undecided voters ahead of the vote was reported to be lower than at previous elections.
The AfD has a chance of winning an absolute majority if several smaller parties fail to clear the five percent threshold required to enter the state parliament. An absolute majority would allow the party to govern alone, bypassing the so-called Brandmauer, or firewall, under which all mainstream parties have refused to enter into coalition with the AfD.
Such an outcome would mark the first time the AfD had won a state government, and the first time since World War II that a far-right party had gained power at a regional level in Germany.
The AfD's lead candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, 35, a former fragrance salesman with a large following on TikTok who has been described as a pop star figure within the party. He was previously a member of the CDU and has since been labelled "Germany's most dangerous man" by the magazine Der Spiegel.
Siegmund has said he will take power only if the party secures an absolute majority and would not enter a coalition with any other party. "It was the others who erected the firewalls," he told the tabloid Bild. "If no one wants to work with us, then we'll just have to do it alone."
On Sunday morning, Siegmund arrived at his polling station with his wife, riding an East German-era moped in the party's colours, a prop that featured prominently throughout the campaign. Speaking outside the polling station, he expressed confidence the party would achieve "45%, and some."
If elected, Siegmund has promised to launch a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools, halt the construction of new wind farms, reintroduce the singing of the national anthem in schools, and change the state's slogan from "Think modern" to "Think German."
He has also sought to capitalise on a mood of nostalgia for communist East Germany and to tap into discontent among eastern Germans who view themselves as second-class citizens relative to those from the west.
The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as "rightwing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency. The party has dismissed this designation and said it would seek to reform the agency, calling it biased.
Critics have warned that an AfD-run state could, due to the party's Kremlin-friendly stance, leak sensitive information to Russia. The AfD has rejected those claims.
The German Economic Institute has warned of far-reaching consequences for the German economy if the AfD takes power, citing its immigration policy as potentially "calamitous" for a state with an ageing, shrinking population that is heavily dependent on foreign workers.
The election is seen as a major test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU, which currently governs Saxony-Anhalt in coalition with two smaller parties under state premier Sven Schulze. Merz and his government are reported to be deeply unpopular following what critics describe as a failure to revive Germany's struggling economy or significantly reduce support for the AfD.
In national polls, the CDU has also been overtaken by the AfD, which has set its sights on victory at the next federal election in 2029. At a campaign rally in Lower Saxony the week before the vote, Merz urged politicians to engage more effectively with the issues raised by the AfD. "We must address the issues at hand. We must also address our choice of words," he said.
If the AfD falls short of an absolute majority, a CDU-led coalition under Schulze is considered the most likely alternative outcome, though weeks of coalition talks could follow depending on which parties clear the five percent threshold.
The night before the election, thousands of demonstrators gathered in the state capital, Magdeburg, for what organisers called a festival of democracy. Rally organisers estimated attendance at between 15,000 and 20,000 people. A message projected onto the facade of Magdeburg Cathedral read: "We do not abandon what we love. True love of the homeland is not the AfD."
The Bishop of Magdeburg, Gerhard Feige, addressing a gathering of churchgoers, warned against forces "that want to sow discord, stoke mistrust and fear." He drew parallels to historical developments, cautioning that a democracy has the potential to abolish itself. "Not everyone who votes or is elected democratically is a democrat," he said.
