Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, exit polls projected on Sunday, securing roughly 44% of the vote and more than doubling its support compared to the 2021 regional election.
Exit polls released by German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF placed the AfD between 44.1% and 44.5%, with some projections citing 44.4%. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz trailed far behind at between 17.8% and 18.5%. Die Linke was third with around 9.3%, followed by the Greens on 8.7% and the Social Democrats on 8.4%.
The AfD won 20.8% in the 2021 regional election, according to one source, while another put its previous result at 23.7%. Both figures indicate the party has roughly doubled its support.
If the AfD succeeds in forming a government, it would mark the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has taken control of a German state government.
The AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, addressed jubilant supporters after the projections were published. "We have made history in this state," he said. "This isn't just about Saxony-Anhalt. It's a signal for the whole of Germany — a self-confident signal."
Siegmund also thanked Chancellor Merz, saying he had been "a very good campaigner for us."
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said the result gave the party a "clear government mandate" and that it would "talk to all the parties" to determine how the AfD could govern. Speaking to public broadcaster ZDF, she said: "We are seeing explosive growth here. We are going to see explosive growth across all of East Germany — and at the federal level, too."
Despite the strong result, it remained unclear whether the AfD would secure an absolute majority in the 83-seat state parliament. The party has ruled out entering a coalition, and all mainstream parties have refused to cooperate with it in government — a stance known in Germany as the Brandmauer, or firewall.
A key variable is the performance of the BSW, a left-wing populist party and offshoot of Die Linke. The BSW needed to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament. One source reported it had failed to do so, which would increase the AfD's chances of a majority. Another source reported it had cleared the threshold. The BSW has agreed to cooperate with the AfD on certain issues, including energy price reform.
Turnout was notably high. One source put it at an estimated 78%, while another reported a record 76.5%.
The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as "right-wing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency — a designation Siegmund has rejected. The state has a population of approximately 2.1 million, with around 1.7 million eligible to vote.
Siegmund, described as a former marketing professional with a polished public image, has campaigned on mass deportations, stricter migration and education policy, changes to the region's public broadcaster, and closer relations with Russia and the MAGA movement in the United States.
The CDU's general secretary, Franziska Hoppermann, called the result a "defeat overall" for the Christian Democrats. "And it is also a defeat for all those who have borne responsibility in the democracy in Saxony-Anhalt over the past 35 years," she said, in reference to the post-communist era. The CDU's state leader, Sven Schulze, conceded defeat and said his party would have to deal with the result. "This was an extremely tough and intensive election campaign," he said.
Germany's centre-left SPD described the outcome as "truly dramatic." National leader Lars Klingbeil called it a "signal to Berlin" and said his party would hear it.
The result drew international attention. US President Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the German TV projection on his Truth Social platform. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev then shared a screengrab of Trump's post and praised what he called a "historic win for the pragmatic AfD." Dmitriev had previously described the AfD as "the party of hope and reason, co-operation truth and hope for Germany."
Main German television channel Das Erste cancelled its long-running crime drama Tatort to focus on coverage of the result.
The AfD currently leads national opinion polls, ahead of Merz's CDU and the Social Democrats. The party has its sights set on federal elections in 2029 or 2033. Saxony-Anhalt had been governed since 2002 by the CDU in coalition with smaller parties.
